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Here's some more amateur meterology to predict the '98 season:
El Nino should negatively affect our early season due to warmer ocean
temperatures which will give us less thermal push, as well as decreased
stability of the North Pacific High (which gives us our NW flow). If last
fall is any indication, the coast should get better wind than the bay.
Hopefully, by late spring/ early summer what NW winds we do get will cool the
ocean enough to get back to a more normal pattern.
Our last El Nino was a mild one in '95. I have a theory that we get epic
years during a La Nina (opposite of El Nino) event. La Ninas cause drought
and a very stable North Pacific High. There is an article by Brian Caserio
in a Windtracks (the one with Ian Boyd at Pistol on the cover- last year) on
how epic 1984 was - that the season went just about the whole year. 1984 was
a La Nina year, and was the year after the last big El Nino of winter '82/83.
Maybe '99 will do the same!!!
By the way, a big part of El Nino is the suppression of easterly trades in
the Pacific - which certainly screws up Maui.
Brad
ps. It looks good for this weekend!!!!!!!
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