Received: from hplms26.hpl.hp.com by opus.hpl.hp.com with ESMTP (1.37.109.18/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1) id AA078352736; Mon, 11 Aug 1997 13:52:16 -0700 Return-Path: <stwinkle@ix.netcom.com-DeleteThis> Received: from user.host.net by hplms26.hpl.hp.com with ESMTP (1.37.109.16/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1S) id AA199242734; Mon, 11 Aug 1997 13:52:14 -0700 Received: from ScottPC.imagenet-cane.com ([208.219.104.11]) by user.host.net (8.8.5/8.7.3) with SMTP id QAA10551 for <wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis>; Mon, 11 Aug 1997 16:38:24 -0400 Message-Id: <3.0.1.32.19970811134032.0068c054@popd.netcruiser-DeleteThis> X-Sender: stwinkle@popd.netcruiser-DeleteThis (Unverified) X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32) Date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 13:40:32 -0700 To: wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis From: Scott Winkler <stwinkle@ix.netcom.com-DeleteThis> Subject: Re: Pressure Gradient's? In-Reply-To: <199708082228.PAA19994@zonker.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
I geuss there's no easy answer to the ancient question:
Where the *&%$&#@ is it going to blow today?
The UC davis site has a pretty detailed technical discussion
of the situation. Look under the State Forecast Discussion button.
http://www-atm.ucdavis.edu/~wxauto/fos/states/California.html
It's a little hard to read this thing, but if I'm interpreting
correctly, we're sort of screwed until later this week.
At 03:31 PM 8/8/97 -0700, you wrote:
>Well, that's a start. But when I tried to build a numerical model of
>winds at SFO from several years of data, I found that there are a lot of
>things that are correlated to the wind we get, but even using them all,
>I still got an error between model and actual values of around 5 knots
>(standard deviation). This is about the same error that the NWS has
>for its SFO forecasts.
>
>Some things that we know matter:
> - pressure gradient from ocean to coast
> - pressure gradient from coast to the valley
> - pressure gradient from the valley to the Great Basin (Nevada)
> - jet stream direction and strength
> - fog depth
> - fog area coverage
> - cloud coverage
> - low pressure systems moving through
> - corriolis effect on large areas of low/high pressure
> - catabatic flow effect
> - time of year
>
>And even though we have all the above info, I, NWS and Mike Godsey all
>totally missed calling Tuesday's big blow at 3rd.
>
>
>Ken Poulton
>poulton@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis
********************************
Scott Winkler
415 917-9674 (hm)
408 863-7260 (wk)
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Dec 10 2001 - 02:32:27 PST